Why have business cycle fluctuations become less volatile?

Why Has Output Become Less Volatile?

has become noticeably less volatile. During that time, the economy has experienced two recessions, compared with four in each of the two preceding twenty year periods. Further, the loss in output during the last two recessions has been smaller than what prior experience would lead one to expect. Moreover, the reduction in output volatility is not confined to business cycle frequencies.This can ...

Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile?

This paper uses a disaggregated approach to study the volatility of common stocks at the market, industry, and firm levels. Over the period from 1962 to 1997 there has been a noticeable increase in firm-level volatility relative to market volatility. Accordingly, correlations among individual stocks and the explanatory power of the market model for a typical stock have declined, whereas the num...

Why Is Consumption Less Volatile Than Income?

Why Have Americans Become More Obese?

I n the early 1960s, the average American adult male weighed 168 pounds. Today, he weighs nearly 180 pounds. Over the same time period, the average female adult weight rose from 143 pounds to over 155 pounds (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 1977, 1996). In the early 1970s, 14 percent of the population was classified as medically obese. Today, obesity rates are two times higher (Ce...

Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations

We re-examine the evidence on the relationship between credit spreads and economic activity, by constructing a credit spread index based on an extensive micro-level data set of secondary market prices of outstanding senior unsecured corporate bonds over the 1973–2009 period. Compared with the standard default-risk and other financial indicators, our credit spread index is a robust predictor of ...